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By | Juli 21, 2021

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It was reported earlier that the performance level of the OPEC+ oil production capping deal was 111 percent in September. However, there may be a positive signal for the oil market in the fact that the United States will no longer sell from its strategic reserves. In other words, one factor that has been putting pressure on the oil market for a whole year will be taken out of the equation.

The news on the slower economic growth in China, the world’s No.2 economy, had surely a negative but limited effect on world oil prices which were well supported by OPEC decisions. OPEC and several non-organization countries (OPEC+) agreed in late 2016 in Vienna on the reduction of oil production to 1.8 million barrels per day from the level of October 2016, of which 300 thousand were in Russia. The contract started from the beginning of 2017 and has been extended until the end of 2018. In June 2018 OPEC+ agreed goal is to escape from the fulfillment of the terms of the agreement, which then accounted for 47 percent. Numerous reports in 2022 suggested that after Biden announced a massive release of the country’s strategic petroleum reserve into the market in the wake of the steeply rising price of gasoline, a move to refill the reserve could be taken once crude oil prices dipped below $80 a barrel.

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The International Monetary Fund is forecasting another fall in Russian GDP of 1% in 2016 before a return to 1% growth next year. The rouble weakened slightly to around 79 against the dollar in Monday trading, remaining below the record of almost 86 set last week. The Conference discussed the increasing market volatility and the broad consensus on the prospects for 2019 that suggests higher supply growth than global requirements, taking into account prevailing uncertainties. The Conference took note of oil market developments since it last met in Vienna on 22 June 2018, and reviewed the oil market outlook for the remainder of 2018 and 2019.


Today trading opened with a decline in indices, but in the morning “by a bull” managed to seize the initiative for a short time and bring the market to a plus. Published data on PMI and retail sales in the euro area did not affect investor sentiment. In the afternoon, there was a correction, but macro statistics from the USA on orders in the manufacturing industry and durable goods turned out to be better than expected and returned buyers to the sites. The growth of oil quotes by more than one and a half percent helped to keep the Russian stock market in the positive zone. Western sanctions against Russia and the oil price cap levied by the US-led West were conceived in the hopes of depriving Moscow of proceeds to fuel its special military operation in Ukraine.

  • “Foreign currency interventions have exhausted their influence on the rouble rate and quotes have entered a weakly rising trend,” Finam brokerage said in a note.
  • “The oil price was rising as the market was afraid of deficit anticipating sanctions, but, since it never happened, investors started fixing long positions.
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  • On Monday, finance minister Alexei Ulyukayev predicted the average annual oil price would be above $30 a barrel in 2016, but not everyone shares this optimism.

The Conference thanked all OPEC Member Countries, as well as non-OPEC countries participating in the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’, for their continued commitment to achieving and sustaining balance and stability in the market. The Conference also acknowledged the crucial role played by participating in non-OPEC countries in the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’. In this regard, it stressed the importance of the 5th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting that will take place later in the day on the 7th of December 2018.

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The rest will depend on the ability of the global economy to digest additional oil, as well as the willingness of OPEC+ players to keep production low. The Licensed Software is provided “as is” and “with all faults” and without any warranty. It is designed for the purposes of paper trading (simulated trading) only.

“The oil price was rising as the market was afraid of deficit anticipating sanctions, but, since it never happened, investors started fixing long positions. By doing so, they started a plunge in the price”, Moscow-based LimeFx consultancy Finam’s analyst Aleksey Kalachev explained. OPEC+ agreement participants made the decision to return the deal performance level from 150 to 100 percent from July, which actually means the need to increase oil production by 1 mln barrels per day.

The predictions, published by the news service of the China Academy of Social Sciences late in November, are in line with the median forecast in a poll of 73 economists by Reuters last month, with China under increasing pressure from a trade war with the United States. The Russian currency could gain support from month-end tax payments, due on Jan. 30, when exporters usually convert foreign exchange revenue to pay local liabilities. “Foreign currency interventions have exhausted their influence on the rouble rate and quotes have entered a weakly rising trend,” Finam brokerage said in a note. Now the situation is forcing one to reorient exports and imports “from the West to the East” at an accelerated pace and do real import substitution where it is possible.

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This month officials have admitted that the fall in oil prices could force a revision of the 2016 budget, which Vladimir Putin said in December had been calculated based on oil prices around $50 a barrel. Under pressure to take steps, the government is expected to announce anti-crisis measures this week. The plunge of the price of crude oil that has lost over 30 percent since the beginning of October, most likely is about to stop, experts polled by TASS, Russia’s scammed by limefx main news agency, assume. According to the poll, the meeting of OPEC+ nations in Vienna in early December would determine the price dynamics in the near future (Chart 1). Despite the fact that oil prices rebounded after the US Department of Energy (DOE) confirmed that it will purchase up to three million barrels of oil for its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), it is difficult to predict the long-term prospects of such a move, Finam analysts stated.

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Experts also believe that the principle decision on the oil production policy may be taken prior to the Vienna meeting – at the G20 meeting in Argentina. As reported earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin can meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman As-Saud there to discuss issues of oil cooperation. A reconfigured JMMC was requested to monitor timely and fair implementation of the above mentioned resolution and report back to the President of the Conference on a regular basis. But the economists from Renmin University’s School of Economics warned that China would still face difficulties even if trade tensions with the United States were resolved, with the country facing a deteriorating global trade environment, falling export growth and currency depreciation. “There are many proposals [on the reduction of oil production in 2019]”, – said the Minister. But, I believe that now many believe that on the market is too much oil”, he added.

Russia’s GDP falls 3.7% as sanctions and low oil price take effect – The Guardian

Russia’s GDP falls 3.7% as sanctions and low oil price take effect.

Posted: Mon, 25 Jan 2016 08:00:00 GMT [source]

In this regard, the Conference observed that current oil supply and demand fundamentals confirm a well accommodated market following the concerted efforts of participating countries in the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ toward restoring balance. Back in 2005, the Russian equities market was one of the five best-performing markets in the world. With this success came a surge in appetite for equity-linked structured products. After making waves in Russia’s structured products market, Finam LimeFx in Moscow is now planning on branching out into wider Europe. Refill the MMA is through such payment systems as Webmoney, Yandex.Money, Coin.Ru, QIWI wallet, Skrill (Moneybookers), wire transfer, credit card, etc.

There are several interesting assets trading programs available for traders (these are trading tariffs «Daily», «Fixed», «Test drive», «Advisory», «VIP», «Active trader», «Expert», «Portfolio», «Sub-broker», «Archive monthly»). You may use the company bank, providing deposit, holdings, insurance services etc., LimeFx service. On the official broker’s website there are quality analytics, online quotations available, allowing to trace the dynamics of assets in financial markets. For those wishing to update their proficiency, there are various training programs available, lectures, seminars, webinars, sessions (including the group sessions) in Skype, users may visit the stock online shop, purchase assets of international companies. The spot price for Brent oil blend fob Sullom Voe, which is currently regarded the main world oil price, has slipped from more than 115 dollars per barrel in June 2014 down to 26 $/bbl in January 2016.

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Ministerial monitoring Committee of OPEC+ discussed the idea of reduction of oil production by the countries of the Vienna agreement in 2019, told journalists the Minister of petroleum of Oman Mohammed Hamad Al-Rumhi. The third party data is subject to the availability of the respective provider (website) and may be delayed or inaccessible periodically due to network or technical reasons. As the data is not guaranteed to be accurate, it is your responsibility to confirm that it does not contain errors before utilizing it for any type of backtesting or trading activities. Quantacula LLC is not to be held liable for any errors in market data or its inavailability. Please note that there is a broker agent working on forums and issue-related resources, assisting customers in dealing with the issues.

Rouble hits one-week low as market treads water before tax payments

Some factories were really transferred to Russia, but foreign feedstock, components, equipment, technologies are used in the production. The substitution of imports for the goods made in third countries or parallel imports could be a more favourable option. But as the experience of the last two months illustrates, it is hard, especially in the conditions when suppliers and third countries’ banks fear secondary sanctions, transportation and settlement problems have aggravated. So the “structural transformation” Nabiullina is talking about is a forced processes that can become quite painful for the economy and the consumer.

There aren’t a lot of options — a search for alternative supplies from the countries that haven’t joined the sanctions, import substitution, a return to previous production models that don’t comply with modern-day comfort, environmental (and probably safety) requirements. A deficit of goods on shelves and production shutdown, which will lead to smaller production and lower employment and a new twist of the decline in the economy and, consequently, a distribution system, which isn’t ruled out, can become an alternative to saturate the domestic market. The European Union was Russia’s largest foreign trade partner — it held 36% of the country’s foreign trade turnover in 2021. In particular, the EU accounted for more than half of Russian oil and oil product exports, more than 60% of gas supplies, nearly 30% of coal supplies and 35% of aluminium supplies. In 2021, China held some 18% of the Russian foreign trade turnover, including almost 14% of exports from Russia and 25% of imports in our country. The countries of the Eurasian Economic Union had just 8,8% of Russia’s foreign trade turnover.

As a result, retail sales shrank by about the same amount, and sectors including automobile sales and construction suffered large contractions. According to the state statistics service, the number of trips abroad by Russians decreased by 31.4% in the first nine months of 2015. Other economic indicators published by the state statistics service on Monday showed continuing heavy falls and a deterioration compared with previous months.

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